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_Vimothy_'s profile
Vimothy
Vimothy
Vimothy
@_Vimothy_

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Vimothy

@_Vimothy_

Joined May 2013

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    1. JP Koning‏ @jp_koning Jul 22

      Wow. Ethereums's two biggest ponzi game apps have grown exponentially over the last week and exceed the most popular non-ponzis. 92,000 ETH has been committed to POHW3D and FOMO3D, or $42 million. Some of you may scoff, but consider the alternative...pic.twitter.com/AE9srr4yma

      8 replies 32 retweets 90 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Derek McDaniel‏ @derekmc_ Jul 22
      Replying to @jp_koning

      Gambling improves the expected value for the time to reach a savings goal. If you save a dollar a day, it takes you 100 days to get $100. If you bet $1/day at fair odds to win $100, the expected time is log 0.5/log 0.99 = 69 days.

      6 replies 2 retweets 9 likes
    3. Vimothy‏ @_Vimothy_ Jul 22
      Replying to @derekmc_ @jp_koning

      assuming the chance of success is 1/100, you can model the problem as a geometric distribution - which has an expected value of 1/p, where p is the chance of success of an individual trial - which gives an expected time to win $100 of 1/(1/100) or 100 days

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. Derek McDaniel‏ @derekmc_ Jul 22
      Replying to @_Vimothy_ @jp_koning

      yeah, it's actually the median time I was referring to. see my other tweet.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Vimothy‏ @_Vimothy_ Jul 22
      Replying to @derekmc_ @jp_koning

      I'm not sure how relevant this is to the OP, tho - in a ponzi you don't know the odds and they're probably significantly worse than fair (otherwise its a bad bet from the POV of its originators)

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. Derek McDaniel‏ @derekmc_ Jul 22
      Replying to @_Vimothy_ @jp_koning

      It was just a general observation about gambling.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Vimothy‏ @_Vimothy_ Jul 22
      Replying to @derekmc_ @jp_koning

      fair odds implies no expected gain or loss from a bet, which tells you that gambling, in the real world, will not feature such odds, since the house wouldn't (on average) make any money

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    8. Derek McDaniel‏ @derekmc_ Jul 22
      Replying to @_Vimothy_ @jp_koning

      Gambling is any action involving risk. Even if you need "house" as a gambling intermediary, it is the tendency of the rate of profit to fall- the house can charge a flat fee, whatever minimum amount which supports their operations.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Vimothy‏ @_Vimothy_ Jul 22
      Replying to @derekmc_ @jp_koning

      thats a very idiosyncratic definition of gambling

      9:21 AM - 22 Jul 2018
      • 3 Likes
      • Bennett Hoffman Rick Dudley Derek McDaniel
      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        1. James RT‏ @JRossTreacher Jul 24
          Replying to @_Vimothy_ @derekmc_ @jp_koning

          In the real world on betting exchanges like betfair, the house takes up to 60% of profits if you are winning and can refuse payout These ethereum games seem more fair

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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