Question #3: If the trend of these newly occupied homes is accurate, it seems like it's flown relatively under the radar. How?
Conversation
There’s been plenty written about how hot the metro Detroit housing market has been during the pandemic, but metro Detroit =/= Detroit (though a few articles have been more focused on the city exclusively).
1
1
14
Further, when it comes to questions of population, the headline has been the decline found in the 2020 census. If there is a net increase of 5,000 occupied homes, though, then it may support Mayor Duggan’s point that something was missed.
1
2
15
I looked at a few different data sets tracking various processes that you might expect to light up if lots of homes are being reoccupied:
- Building permits
- Principal residence exemptions
- Rental registrations
- Certificates of compliance with the City’s rental ordinance
1
1
6
As you can see in the chart below, most of these 8,200 newly occupied homes don’t (yet?) ping off any of these datasets.
1
2
8
There were 10,640 building permits pulled in Detroit for residential properties between Jan ‘19 - Sept ‘21 (the period represented on the chart) but only 500 amongst these 8,200 homes which, since they were vacant, presumably all needed some work before being reoccupied.
1
1
8
And even though about 5,000 of these homes appear to be likely rentals, only 1,100 are registered as rental properties with the city. Just 37 of 5,000 clear the higher bar of having a certificate of compliance with the City’s rental ordinance.
1
2
8
None of this is surprising, and these percentages probably aren’t really outliers for things like building permits and rental registrations, but it could help indicate why this phenomenon might be flying under the radar.
1
1
7
By the way, before moving on to question #4, let me just say that all the data ingredients I've gone through here, with the exception of the USPS data which helped me out with...
1
1
6
...all this data is publicly available either on Regrid or the City of Detroit's open data portal: data.detroitmi.gov It takes familiarity to know what you want to look for, but the ecosystem has gotten so much better in the city. Props to all who've worked on that.
1
1
14
I did some door knocking and also spoke to a couple people who work in the world of rehabbing Detroit homes, managing property, etc. None of them were surprised by what I described to them in the data.
1
3
18
The themes I heard -- not answers, just anecdotes -- were, yes, these are largely rental properties. Many of the people moving into these homes are former Detroiters moving back from the suburbs for a host of reasons, such as…
1
3
16
…having been priced out of the suburbs, wanting more space during the pandemic, evictions in the suburbs and finding it easier to rent in Detroit with an eviction in their recent history. And there are definitely new homeowners and buyers, too.
1
1
13
I don't know how to weight the frequency of these themes, and I'm sure that list is far from comprehensive, it's just anecdotal data. But a return of former Detroit residents would be a very interesting development, if it proves to be true.
1
1
10
It’s also *possible*, of course, to see +5,000 occupied homes & no increase in overall population. If, for example, a lot of people wanted to move out of multifamily housing during the pandemic and into a single family home, that could do it. But I haven't heard that.
1
1
9
Finally, for now, what does this all mean? And how is it flying in the face of what seems to be the common knowledge game of Detroit housing during the pandemic, which includes things like...
1
1
7
...tenant’s not paying rent due to moratoriums, no one can find a contractor, soaring building material costs, etc. To me, none of those things should add up to this house getting rehabbed and rented.
2
1
15
(Although maybe the contractor thing is a case of "No one goes there anymore -- it's too crowded.)
1
1
5
Another unsatisfying "I don't know" from me on that question, but I will say that I have felt a kind of "fully prepared to fight the last war" vibe in Detroit housing conversations lately. What I mean is Detroit housing is dynamic...
1
1
9
...and it's very hard, but very necessary, to be aware of change over time as a result of how dynamic it is. You can take a snapshot of the city and identify an issue or an opportunity, but if you can't place it in time, (is it increasing or decreasing? if so, how fast?)...
1
1
6
...by the time you're ready to do something about it, it may be gone, or shape-shifted, and you may not know even if you do take another snapshot because it may not be gone, it may just be different. (Unknown knowns, maybe)
1
1
3
One of the things that's very satisfying about working on tax foreclosure as an issue is that it has a kind of EKG. You can watch property tax debt rise & fall on a property-by-property basis, & citywide. You CAN place things in a change-over-time frame...
1
1
7
...You can see early warning signs -- and signs of progress, too -- if you know how to identify them. So I feel acutely aware when I look at a topic where those things aren't present, and how much it means I know I don't know, or can't know.
1
1
5
Anyway, I wonder if we're in a new & different moment of dynamism right now. USPS vacancy data, at least, is something that you CAN watch change over time. Props to for helping me do that. It's a pulse people should keep a finger on -- I know I will.
1
2
9
The above USPS vacancy data ran Jan' 20 - Sept '21. USPS updates monthly, IIRC. Whatever happened (/was happening) Jan '20 - Sept '21 in Detroit doesn't look to be over: The net increase in occupied homes is now +5,500 through the latest available USPS data.
1
1
6
One more thing actually -- you can never have too many Street View before and afters. A few more examples of houses USPS said were vacant in Jan. 2020 and occupied in Sept. 2021:
1
1
13
