Daniel Kaufman

@Yozarian22

Always trying to engage earnestly and respectfully. Minimal snark. Please call me out if I don't live up to that.

Vrijeme pridruživanja: veljača 2017.

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  1. Prikvačeni tweet
    3. velj

    If you're ever in Austin and want to talk over coffee or beer, let me know. I've got plenty of free time and crave intellectual conversation.

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  2. prije 6 sati

    At this stage, nobody really knows which candidates will be more competitive in the general election, including the opponents. We have vague clues at best.

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  3. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 18 sati

    So many students suffer in school because of poor eyesight. Why can’t the government provide free correctional lenses to all public school students instead of spending much more on mitigating its lack’s side effects?

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  4. 3. velj

    Also, this pattern is not unique to any particular ideology. I've seen it where X="The US should deport every undocumented immigrant". I've seen it where X="The US should have open borders".

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  5. 3. velj

    What would be a good name?

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  6. 3. velj

    Common pattern that I wish had a name: Person A says, "I disagree with X" Replies are evenly split. Half say, "X is a strawman; nobody advocates X" Half say "X is good/true; you should accept X" And all these people seem to think that they're agreeing with each other.

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  7. 29. sij

    Lukewarm take: 'the Internet' refers to a single specific entity and is therefore a proper noun that should always be capitalized.

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  8. 29. sij

    Elective surgery mortality risk by day of the week.

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  9. 28. sij

    Twitter tip for productive disagreements: when debating someone, like their tweets as long as you sense they're being made in good faith. Even if you disagree with the particular argument or point. This keeps hostility low and makes them more likely to actually listen.

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  10. 28. sij

    One aspect of job automation that I think is under-discussed: how quality falls and consumers suffer. A robot doesn't have to be as good at a job as a human if it is sufficiently cheaper. See: automated call systems vs human operators.

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  11. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    28. sij

    There is a kind of scientific dialectic that I often see which gives false weight to "new" theories. Here's an illustration: Step 1: There is a dominant theory that explains some data but not everything.

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  12. 28. sij

    *The exception is the 2014 Ebola outbreak, which turned out to be much worse than anyone initially anticipated.

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  13. 28. sij

    Most* pandemics I can remember turned out in retrospect to have been overhyped by the media. So I discount current coverage about Coronavirus. But this doesn't actually give me a way to recognize when the threat is serious. To me, real tigers look just like paper ones.

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  14. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    27. sij
    Odgovor korisniku/ci
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  15. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    23. sij

    Pre-2010, 50g of crack-cocaine got you a mandatory minimum 10 years in prison. Post-2010, that threshold was raised to 280g, which resulted in this .... uhhh suspicious drug seizure graph. h/t

    pre 2010, pretty reasonable power law graph
    post 2010, pretty reasonable power law graph, except for a huge spike right at the 280g threshold
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  16. 27. sij

    That's not to say that those steps were good. In hindsight, we know many of those tough-on-crime policies caused more problems than they solved. Many should be reversed. But I'm not going to condemn people of that time.

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  17. 27. sij

    In that sense, it was actually a similar issue to global warming now - some problems in the present, but surety of drastic problems if the trend continued unabated. In that atmosphere, it's not surprising that politicians championed drastic steps.

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  18. 27. sij

    It's not just that crime was high - it's that crime had been consistently increasing for decades, and that the same escalating trend was happening all over the world. Most of the leading theorists gave explanations that implied crime would continue to climb indefinitely.

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  19. 27. sij

    I think that a lot of current the discourse about early 90's crime policy fails to understand the position people were in back then. Many of things we now understand could never have been known with the data available at the time.

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  20. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    25. sij

    Since talk about R0's are going viral, I'll mention why I think the R0 is an interesting philosophy of science topic. While R0 is sometimes treated like a basic scientific constant (like Planck's constant or something), it's way different.

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