What will the next decade bring? Here are ten quasi-predictions* for the next ten years. (And to my own surprise, many of them are actually optimistic!) [Thread.]
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8) Conservatives Become More Diverse From Sweden to the States, many immigrants have very conservative values. By appealing to racists, conservative parties have driven them away. Will they finally build a broader tent, making western politics less polarized along racial lines?
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9) Global Inequality Falls Thanks to rapid development in some of the poorest regions, the world as a whole likely became *less* unequal in the 2010s. If big parts of Asia and Africa keep growing as quickly as predicted, global inequality could keep falling in the 2020s.
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10) Liberal Democracy Regains Its Allure The 2010s have shown that liberal democracy needs serious repair. But the 2020s may show that the main ideological competitors to liberal democracy fare even worse—and that those deprived of their liberty eventually fight to win it back.
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Many of these quasi-predictions will turn out to be completely wrong. And of course I will have missed many of the most important developments of the next decade. So help me out: What widely discounted outcomes do you foresee for the next decade?


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Kraj razgovora
Novi razgovor -
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No. Polarization will be the norm from now on. It doesnt helps that immigration and population growth will give democrats an electoral edge in the years to come. But we wont go away.
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I don't see how polarization will end either. The pendulum analogy doesn't really work anymore. Right now, each side is pushing their own pendulum (in their own media bubbles and gerrymandered districts) and has it right up against the ceiling since nothing is directly opposed.
Kraj razgovora
Novi razgovor -
Čini se da učitavanje traje već neko vrijeme.
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The one certainty is that things will change more than we tend to assume.