What will the next decade bring? Here are ten quasi-predictions* for the next ten years. (And to my own surprise, many of them are actually optimistic!) [Thread.]
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7) Post-Woke The 2010s have brought us The Great Awokening. This year, we saw the beginning of a cultural pushback, from Dave Chapelle to Barack Obama. Will the great awakening start to fade, especially if a Democrat wins the White House in 2020?
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8) Conservatives Become More Diverse From Sweden to the States, many immigrants have very conservative values. By appealing to racists, conservative parties have driven them away. Will they finally build a broader tent, making western politics less polarized along racial lines?
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9) Global Inequality Falls Thanks to rapid development in some of the poorest regions, the world as a whole likely became *less* unequal in the 2010s. If big parts of Asia and Africa keep growing as quickly as predicted, global inequality could keep falling in the 2020s.
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10) Liberal Democracy Regains Its Allure The 2010s have shown that liberal democracy needs serious repair. But the 2020s may show that the main ideological competitors to liberal democracy fare even worse—and that those deprived of their liberty eventually fight to win it back.
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Many of these quasi-predictions will turn out to be completely wrong. And of course I will have missed many of the most important developments of the next decade. So help me out: What widely discounted outcomes do you foresee for the next decade?


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Kraj razgovora
Novi razgovor -
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Retirement of the baby boomers could lead to a labor shortage in some industries. But machine learning and robotics may create substitutes for low skilled labor, which would put downward pressure on wages. Trends going in opposite directions.
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Tough to say which will win .... Probably strong wage increases in some areas, and strong decreases in others.
Kraj razgovora
Novi razgovor -
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They will face high automation in their fields. Wages may go up as a result of public policies (i.e. Minimum wage laws) but the amount of jobs for low skilled workers will decrease.
Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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Can we isolate the growth of wages for conventionally low-paid jobs to state policy vs. Federal in the US? What impacts does political participation at the state level have on populist approaches for the country?
Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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Čini se da učitavanje traje već neko vrijeme.
Twitter je možda preopterećen ili ima kratkotrajnih poteškoća u radu. Pokušajte ponovno ili potražite dodatne informacije u odjeljku Status Twittera.
The one certainty is that things will change more than we tend to assume.