What will the next decade bring? Here are ten quasi-predictions* for the next ten years. (And to my own surprise, many of them are actually optimistic!) [Thread.]
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6) Rising Wages for the Low-Skilled For decades, incomes have risen for those at the top but not for those at the bottom. This trend has now started to reverse. Could full employment, coupled with a leftward shift in economic policy, keep boosting the wages of the low-skilled?pic.twitter.com/NVDzIjeVck
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7) Post-Woke The 2010s have brought us The Great Awokening. This year, we saw the beginning of a cultural pushback, from Dave Chapelle to Barack Obama. Will the great awakening start to fade, especially if a Democrat wins the White House in 2020?
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8) Conservatives Become More Diverse From Sweden to the States, many immigrants have very conservative values. By appealing to racists, conservative parties have driven them away. Will they finally build a broader tent, making western politics less polarized along racial lines?
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9) Global Inequality Falls Thanks to rapid development in some of the poorest regions, the world as a whole likely became *less* unequal in the 2010s. If big parts of Asia and Africa keep growing as quickly as predicted, global inequality could keep falling in the 2020s.
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10) Liberal Democracy Regains Its Allure The 2010s have shown that liberal democracy needs serious repair. But the 2020s may show that the main ideological competitors to liberal democracy fare even worse—and that those deprived of their liberty eventually fight to win it back.
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Many of these quasi-predictions will turn out to be completely wrong. And of course I will have missed many of the most important developments of the next decade. So help me out: What widely discounted outcomes do you foresee for the next decade?


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Kraj razgovora
Novi razgovor -
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I thought populism consists of characterizing the opposition as illegitimate, even traitorous. How can that be moderate?
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Lord, save us from the “Moderate” Populists:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/28/britain-first-far-right-members-5000-have-joined-tories …
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The rise of "Green" populists (everything justified to defend the future of civilisation)?
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Honest question (not looking for crazy partisan responses)...in general what Trump policies are “far right” in a historical (last 30 years) context?
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The one certainty is that things will change more than we tend to assume.