Autonomous driving is possible because it is sufficiently well-defined (more like playing chess than gardening) and real-world feedback loops are cheap enough (cars don't need to position and climb ladders while holding hedge trimmers in ever-changing environments).
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The AI Timelines Scam https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KnQs55tjxWopCzKsk/the-ai-timelines-scam … "AI projects are more impactful if it is, in fact, possible to develop AI soon. So, there is an economic pressure towards inflating estimates of the chance AI will be developed soon."
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"While the future may be uncertain, massive technological unemployment seems unlikely. The OECD estimates that 14% of jobs are at high risk of automation – significantly fewer than some researchers have argued."https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1154077099704983554 …
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"Where a computer might be stuck in an endless loop, iterating over infinite explanations, we use our value systems to quickly infer which explanations are both valid and likely."https://quillette.com/2019/09/25/the-human-skills-ai-cant-replace/ …
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If AI takes away all of our menial tasks, only the hard stuff is left. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/09/artificial-intelligence-will-make-your-job-even-harder/597625/ … As AI gets better at performing routine tasks traditionally done by humans, only stressful ones will be left. The work experience could suffer.
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"In terms of this z-score, and averaging over 832 kinds of jobs, automation has only increased ~0.1 standard deviation over the last 20 years."https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1184641885807267840 …
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Might autonomous driving be AI-complete?https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1188975303705714694?s=19 …
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Alphabet's rebooted robotics program starts with trash-sorting machines https://www.engadget.com/2019/11/22/alphabet-xlab-everyday-robot/ … "The robots were able to learn the task through practice rather than having to have each part of the task hand coded."
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DeepMind’s MuZero teaches itself how to win at Atari, chess, shogi, and Go https://venturebeat.com/2019/11/20/deepminds-muzero-teaches-itself-how-to-win-at-atari-chess-shogi-and-go/ … MuZero means AI systems can learn the rules of games themselves.
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Will we ever have fully autonomous vehicles? Some reasons for pessimism …https://philosophicaldisquisitions.blogspot.com/2019/12/will-we-ever-have-fully-autonomous.html … > ...a combination of ethical, legal and strategic factors will encourage us not to make and market fully autonomous vehicles.
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Analysis of 1505 expert reports of job automation levels across 832 US job types, 1999-2019. No support for claims we are entering a trend-deviating revolution in levels of job automation, related job losses, or factors that predict job automation. http://overcomingbias.com/2019/12/automation-so-far-business-as-usual.html …
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Facebook has a neural network that can do advanced mathhttps://www.technologyreview.com/s/614929/facebook-has-a-neural-network-that-can-do-advanced-math/ …
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"Japan hopes that robots and automation will help solve its impending labor shortage. But businesses are finding that some jobs are remarkably difficult to outsource to a machine."https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/31/world/asia/japan-robots-automation.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes …
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Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen …
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