What AI is good at: - Designing concert halls - Detecting breast cancer - Writing news stories - Art - Playing Go What AI is bad at: - Plumbing - Janitorial tasks - Gardening - Installation High automation risk: cognitively demanding work Low automation risk: blue-collar work.
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Tech companies should stop pretending AI won’t destroy jobs https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610298/tech-companies-should-stop-pretending-ai-wont-destroy-jobs/ … "It will soon be obvious that half our tasks can be done better at almost no cost by AI. This will be the fastest transition humankind has experienced, and we’re not ready for it."
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Google AI system proves over 1200 mathematical theorems https://mathscholar.org/2019/04/google-ai-system-proves-over-1200-mathematical-theorems/ … "When they applied their software to a set of 3217 new theorems that it had not yet seen, it succeeded in proving 1251, or 38.9%."
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Rich nations urged to prepare workers for age of automation https://www.ft.com/content/f64089c6-6681-11e9-9adc-98bf1d35a056 … "McKinsey’s analysis of the labour force in eurozone countries found that low-skilled and low-paying jobs were at the greatest risk of automation."pic.twitter.com/U4i7Hn7Xkz
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“I just helped set up a factory that had 70% fewer workers than one even a few years ago would have had, and most of them are high-end technicians on laptops. I have no idea what normal people are going to do in a few years.”https://www.yang2020.com/blog/wonp-introduction-great-displacement/ …
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Rodney Brooks reminds us that level-5 autonomous driving is harder than what people who listen to Elon Musk think.https://twitter.com/rodneyabrooks/status/1129261806545883136 …
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Google's Waymo CEO: ‘Level 5’ fully-autonomous vehicles will never exist https://medium.com/s/story/self-driving-cars-will-always-be-limited-even-the-industry-leader-admits-it-c5fe5aa01699 … It will take decades for self-driving cars to become common on roads, and even then they will not be able to drive in certain conditions.
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How to update on AI news? https://axisofordinary.tumblr.com/post/185886194418/how-to-update-on-ai-news … Recent machine learning breakthroughs are evidence we should take into account to update our expectations of how imminent artificial general intelligence is. But how much exactly?
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The AI Timelines Scam https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KnQs55tjxWopCzKsk/the-ai-timelines-scam … "AI projects are more impactful if it is, in fact, possible to develop AI soon. So, there is an economic pressure towards inflating estimates of the chance AI will be developed soon."
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"While the future may be uncertain, massive technological unemployment seems unlikely. The OECD estimates that 14% of jobs are at high risk of automation – significantly fewer than some researchers have argued."https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1154077099704983554 …
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"Where a computer might be stuck in an endless loop, iterating over infinite explanations, we use our value systems to quickly infer which explanations are both valid and likely."https://quillette.com/2019/09/25/the-human-skills-ai-cant-replace/ …
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If AI takes away all of our menial tasks, only the hard stuff is left. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/09/artificial-intelligence-will-make-your-job-even-harder/597625/ … As AI gets better at performing routine tasks traditionally done by humans, only stressful ones will be left. The work experience could suffer.
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"In terms of this z-score, and averaging over 832 kinds of jobs, automation has only increased ~0.1 standard deviation over the last 20 years."https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1184641885807267840 …
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Might autonomous driving be AI-complete?https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1188975303705714694?s=19 …
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Alphabet's rebooted robotics program starts with trash-sorting machines https://www.engadget.com/2019/11/22/alphabet-xlab-everyday-robot/ … "The robots were able to learn the task through practice rather than having to have each part of the task hand coded."
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DeepMind’s MuZero teaches itself how to win at Atari, chess, shogi, and Go https://venturebeat.com/2019/11/20/deepminds-muzero-teaches-itself-how-to-win-at-atari-chess-shogi-and-go/ … MuZero means AI systems can learn the rules of games themselves.
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Will we ever have fully autonomous vehicles? Some reasons for pessimism …https://philosophicaldisquisitions.blogspot.com/2019/12/will-we-ever-have-fully-autonomous.html … > ...a combination of ethical, legal and strategic factors will encourage us not to make and market fully autonomous vehicles.
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Analysis of 1505 expert reports of job automation levels across 832 US job types, 1999-2019. No support for claims we are entering a trend-deviating revolution in levels of job automation, related job losses, or factors that predict job automation. http://overcomingbias.com/2019/12/automation-so-far-business-as-usual.html …
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Facebook has a neural network that can do advanced mathhttps://www.technologyreview.com/s/614929/facebook-has-a-neural-network-that-can-do-advanced-math/ …
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"Japan hopes that robots and automation will help solve its impending labor shortage. But businesses are finding that some jobs are remarkably difficult to outsource to a machine."https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/31/world/asia/japan-robots-automation.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes …
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Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen …
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