We've updated @cmmid_lshtm analysis of #nCoV2019 transmission to compare with observed cases reported internationally, and estimate potential for outbreaks in new areas (assuming similar transmission to Wuhan). https://cmmid.github.io/ncov/wuhan_early_dynamics/index.html … A full pre-print will be online shortly 1/
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Comparing model outputs to observed data, we noticed some countries had more cases with a link to Wuhan had more cases than the model predicted, notably France, USA, and Australia... 2/pic.twitter.com/k4U536gibe
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This may be result of increased surveillance/detection as awareness of 2019-nCoV grew, suggesting earlier exported cases may have missed; it may also be the result of increased travel out of Wuhan immediately prior to travel restrictions being introduced on 23rd January. 3/
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To assess potential for outbreaks to occur in new places, we used our estimates of the reproduction number to simulate new outbreaks with potential individual-level variation in transmission (i.e. ‘superspreading’ events). 4/
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Such variation increases the fragility of transmission chains, making it less likely that an outbreak will take off following a single introduction https://www.nature.com/articles/nature04153 … 5/
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We estimated a single introduction of 2019-nCoV with SARS-like or MERS-like individual-level variation in transmission and Wuhan-like reproduction number would have a 15–25% probability of causing a large outbreak 6/pic.twitter.com/gLtOKB7P7u
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Assuming SARS-like variation and Wuhan-like transmission, we estimated that once more than three infections have been introduced into a new location, there is an over 50% chance that an outbreak will occur 7/pic.twitter.com/YiAplVt43e
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Odgovor korisniku/ci @AdamJKucharski
Do you have any size range when you say “location?” I’m wondering if by location you mean a country, a state, a city...? And obviously, those vary by size. Sorry if this was clarified and I missed it.
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And thank you for all the work you and all of the professionals are doing to bring nuanced and responsible attention to this pandemic.
Čini se da učitavanje traje već neko vrijeme.
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