Best estimate for reading speed is the time it takes you to read it 2-3 times as a author. Per line.
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The two KNs I'm musing about, I'm still not sure if one of them vastly underestimated their wordcount ("It's not 200K so I'll say it's 100K!") or if I was less invested in the shorter game and started hammering the spacebar and that's why my playtime is so short.
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My playtime is usually well under the suggested minimums for VNs because I read super fast and I don't hold that against anyone.
End of conversation
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I always go by my reading time x5 (I am a VERY fast reader, mind), but even then it leaves other factors like additional gameplay elements in the forms of routes, subgames, optional content, puzzles… it really is one of the harder things to pin down
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