NC 9 RESULTS THREAD (Might as well get this going, while they're wrapping up voting) #nc09
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IN PERSON EARLY VOTE IN ALL BUT MECK AND RICHMOND: 2018 McC : 51.0% Tonight McC: 50.4% -0.6% McC
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Looks like mail ins included in that, so McC delta larger in the negative direction
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CORRECTION: When adding the mail in for those counties, it's ACTUALLY 2018 McC : 48.2% Tonight McC: 50.4% +2.2% McC
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IN PERSON EARLY VOTE IN ALL BUT MECK (RICHMOND INCL): 2018 McC : 48.4% (in those counties' EV and mail) Tonight McC: 50.5% +2.1% McC
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ALL IN PERSON EARLY VOTE IN, AND SOME ANSON: 2018 McC : 51.6% (in those counties' EV and mail) Tonight McC: 54.3% +2.7% McC
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ALL IN PERSON EARLY VOTE IN, SCOTLAND PCT IN, AND SOME UNION: 2018 McC : 48.9% Tonight McC: 54.1% +5.2% McC
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SCOTLAND COUNTY 100% IN: McCready 57% in 2018, 56% in 2019.
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EV CAVEAT: In Scotland, McC got 61% of in person/absentee but only 52% of Election Day vote.
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More of Union coming in. McC getting 35%, when he got 44% of EV there.
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With precincts in so far, McCready getting 40% in places he got 43% last time. So -3 McC with precinct vote.
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WHY IT'S SO CLOSE: Anson 57D Elec Day, 68D EV Richmond 45D Elec Day, 52D EV Robeson 47D Elec Day, 63D EV Scotland 52D Elec Day, 61D EV Union 34D Elec Day, 44D EV
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Also, too, we dont have any pct data in Bladen and Cumberland, and only 1 precinct in Mecklenburg.
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Some of Bladen in. 48% McC EV, 44% Election Day Some of Meck in. 60% McC EV, 56% Election Day
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108/210 pcts in. 19K McC, 26K Bishop Early vote: 44K McC, 37K Bishop
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115/210 pcts in. 21K McC, 29K Bishop Early vote: 44K McC, 37K Bishop
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To show how tight this is, my model is projecting 85300 McC to 83200 Bishop. But strong GOP Election Day performances may flip that as more pcts come in.
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116/210 pcts in. 20900 McC, 28800 Bishop Early vote: 44400 McC, 37000 Bishop
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Why Bishop could win Anson 49D Elec Day, 68D EV (100% in) Bladen 43D Elec Day, 48D EV Cumberland 50D Elec Day, 56D EV Mecklenburg 55D Elec Day, 60D EV Richmond 44D Elec Day, 52D EV Robeson 39D Elec Day, 63D EV Scotland 52D Elec Day, 61D EV (100% in) Union 36D Elec Day, 44D EV
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123/210 pcts in. 21800 McC, 30300 Bishop Early vote: 44400 McC, 37000 Bishop
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With Meck going from 7 to 14/50 in, my model is projecting 85200 McC to 85600 Bishop. First time I'm seeing a Bishop lead - McC getting 55% of Elec Day and 60% of EV in Meck
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And lest we not forget, there were 1300 provisionals, and McCready got about 60% of them. Not likely for there to be that many tonight, but something to keep in mind.
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Robeson is hurting McCready. He got 63% of EV, with 25/39 in, only getting 42% of Election Day
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With more of Robeson and Union in, my model is projecting 86700 McC to 87300 Bishop.
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With 2/3 of precincts in so far, McCready getting 42.6% in places he got 45.4% last time. So -2.8 McC with precinct vote.
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More Mecklenburg came in. McCready only getting 54% Election Day and 60% of EV
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With 80% of precincts in so far, McCready getting 43.4% in places he got 45.4% last time. So -2.0 McC with precinct vote.
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With more of Mecklenburg in, my model is projecting 88500 McC to 90100 Bishop.
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Why I'm close to calling for Bishop Anson 48D tonite/68D EV (100%) Bladen 42D tonite/48D EV Cumberland 49D tonite/56D EV Mecklenburg 54D tonite/60D EV Richmond 44D tonite/52D EV (100%) Robeson 44D tonite/63D EV Scotland 52D tonite/61D EV (100%) Union 36D tonite/44D EV (100%)
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(81%) Election Day; 80600, +9900 Bishop Early Vote: 81700, +7400 McCready
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Why I called it for Bishop Anson 48D tonite/68D EV (100%) Bladen 42D tonite/48D EV Cumberland 49D tonite/56D EV Mecklenburg 52D tonite/60D EV Richmond 44D tonite/52D EV (100%) Robeson 43D tonite/63D EV Scotland 52D tonite/61D EV (100%) Union 36D tonite/44D EV (100%)
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So what's left ? 12 precincts in Mecklenburg (Elec Day only 52% for McCready) 7 precincts in Bladen (Elec Day 42% for McCready)
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