perhaps because crime recording and arrest standards change? bet "crime" will go down in one west cost city with their new DA
This paper looks legit. Worth noting these effects come mostly from changes in drug crime sentencing specifically.https://twitter.com/MattGrossmann/status/1193586509661605889 …
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From the abstract: “In both cases, there are no significant effects on local crime or arrest rates.”
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Data point: I think the gigantic shift in crime rates from 1992 or so to today can't be pinned on particular local policies well, and remains poorly understood. If that's the case, it means that we still don't understand the first order effects that move crime rates up and down.
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If you can't explain things like a factor of 10 change in some places, even if law enforcement strategies might have a second or third order effect, you're still operating without fundamental information on how to get the effect you want.
End of conversation
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