Why do Betfair's odds imply that Trump has a 37% chance of winning, while Fivethirtyeight says he has an 18% chance? Why the divergence?
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A well functioning prediction market would: 1 Allow unlimited bets, yielding deep markets 2 Have low to no withdrawal fees & transaction fees 3 Have participants hold funds & accrue interest until maturity 4 Operate in jurisdictions that treat proceeds as capital gains vs income
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What would be the benefit of #3? Agree it incentivizes holding the contract till maturity but would have thought it distorts the market since the interest payments have to come from somewhere.
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