Who has generated a Darwin-level insight in biology in the past two decades?
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Why should our prior be extrapolating from history here? Seems like an insanely complex thing to predict. Like, if new findings reveal new ways to make new tools that result in new observations...if the timelines to each shorten, why should things slow?
it’s a fair question. my gut is there’s something innate about fields having initial periods of rapid discovery followed by diminishing returns. I think there’s a Nick Bloom paper on this. braking out of this is probably generationally important
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If my incredibly poor recollection of the nick bloom paper which may or may not exist is correct: I think the assertion was the easiest way to fix this is to increase rate of creation of new fields to artificially stack these high productivity periods
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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