Looking back on last 20 years, the huge events affecting the U.S. have something in common -- they were largely invisible or undetected to start, then all of a sudden, became very real: 9/11 2008 GFC 2016 Election 2020 COVID-19
This is a really bad example of hindsight bias. All events start out looking like nothing, including the ones that ended up being nothing
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Definitely should scrutinize for hindsight bias first. But I think a these particular events instead highlight lots of red flags that nobody took action on because analysis was: - Boring/unfashionable - Required prior context to grok - Work hard to avoid hard/expensive
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I would disagree. Our global narratives kick off a lot of somethings far in advance, that turn out to be nothings. Eg. Y2K The future somethings we obsess over as a society never turn out to be actual big defining events. The big defining events are surprises, almost by defn.
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Macro events can exist in two forms: A. seems like nothing -> is nothing B. seems like nothing -> is something A is definitionally unmeasurable, so you're biasing. Also Y2K is a example of a *huge deal* that was fixed: https://time.com/5752129/y2k-bug-history/ …
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