Steffen Christensen

@Wikisteff

Ph.D. in AI. Senior Foresight Analyst, Horizons. Coder, numbers whiz, foresight expert. Sworn to use Evil powers only for Good. He/they.

Ottawa, Canada
Vrijeme pridruživanja: prosinac 2009.

Medijski sadržaj

  1. prije 4 sata
    Odgovor korisnicima i sljedećem broju korisnika:

    Because of Trump, the subsidies for wind decline to zero after this year, and solar declines significantly to $4/MWh after 2023. Here's the EIA's 2040 table, for reference. The gap between $73/MWh for advanced nuclear and $50/MWh for intermittents is still large.

    1 reply
  2. prije 5 sati
    Odgovor korisnicima

    Really? New advanced nuclear build in US has a levelized cost of energy around $77/MWh for 2023 supply. Wind has $50/MWh and solar $46/MWh. The EIA, like the IEA, doesn't assume any learning curve on technologies, just stated policies, so future wind/solar may be cheaper.

  3. 5. velj
    Odgovor korisnicima

    Hey, good point! I looked it up, and like 75% of blade mass is currently glass fiber, with most of the rest being resin. There are experiments with carbon fiber and mixes, which have better mechanical properties, but the price premium is prohibitive for the 25 year life.

    1 reply
  4. 2. velj
    Odgovor korisniku/ci

    Yep.

  5. 31. sij
    Odgovor korisnicima

    It then balloons out and probably zigs and zags back and forth a few times between about Rigel and Betelgeuse on the HR diagram for a million years or so. Any planets inside about 8 AU will probably be evaporated by the 3600 K star's surface at 4 AU.

  6. 31. sij
    Odgovor korisnicima

    Using GGD 27-MM1 as a model, baby Betelgeuse starts as a 25 solar radius, 12000 K star, just to the left of and slightly below Rigel in the HR diagram. It condenses to a hotter, brighter O9 V star (near beta Centauri) for ~8 million years, gently growing at the end.

    1 reply
  7. 30. sij
    Odgovor korisnicima

    A) Estimates are around 10x as many people are affected as we have confirmed now, basically everywhere. B) Using the SARS epidemiology as a pattern, we may see a few waves, with exponential growth in cases, then linear growth, then reaching an asymptote.

    3 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
  8. 30. sij
    Odgovor korisnicima i sljedećem broju korisnika:

    Here's the money graph.

    1 reply 1 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
  9. 30. sij
    Odgovor korisnicima i sljedećem broju korisnika:

    Paper 2: Who's in Favor of Competition?, Barkai and Azar, 2019

    1 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
  10. 30. sij
    Odgovor korisnicima

    Paper 1: Declining Labor and Capital Shares, Barkai, forthcoming /c

  11. 30. sij
    Odgovor korisnicima

    The ones in red supergiants like Betelgeuse are far bigger. I read once that they think it has 10-14 or so, each one 500 times larger than the sun, which itself is 100x as big as Earth, which is 12x as wide as Texas!

    1 proslijeđeni tweet 2 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
  12. 29. sij
    Odgovor korisniku/ci

  13. 27. sij
    Odgovor korisniku/ci

    This one has an earlier time stamp.

  14. 26. sij
    Odgovor korisnicima

    And by "bunch", you mean "most". The spread between the Florida partisan poll (Trump beats Biden by 5, Sanders not even polled) and the Florida nonpartisan poll (Trump loses to Biden by 3, loses to Sanders by 6) is stark. Let them be overconfident. That can only be to the good.

    1 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
  15. 23. sij

    Holy cow! After reading up to page 5 in this, I am now *very interested* in industry concentration and concentration of ownership. Check out the factor share of profits from 1980s to today!

    2 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
  16. 19. sij
    Odgovor korisnicima

    Oh, thank the Gods! Well done, team Archivist! Well done!

  17. 17. sij
    Odgovor korisnicima

    You can see that land doesn't vote when you draw the map by population instead of by land area. This third map makes it far clearer: cities votes split, rural areas massively red.

    1 reply
  18. 17. sij
    Odgovor korisnicima

    Here is the same map, but with the votes by area indicated on the map. Notice the bigger pies are closers, with some very nearly dead splits?

    1 reply
  19. 17. sij
    Odgovor korisnicima

    So here is Oklahoma, by county, shaded by voting result by county. Notice the pink cells? Again, land doesn't vote...

    1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet
  20. 11. sij
    Odgovor korisnicima i sljedećem broju korisnika:

    This thread literally has everything.

@Wikisteff još nije poslao/la nijedan tweet s fotografijama ili videozapisima.

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