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Short thread on this article by @conor64.
What I like about this is the nuance, and the acknowledgement of the deep uncertainty about the best way forward: there are definitely scenarios where containment is clearly the best option, 1/6https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/take-shutdown-skeptics-seriously/611419/ …
but also scenarios where it is not; e.g., if no treatment or vaccine is on the horizon, and containment wouldn't actually work in the U.S. in practice, because of some combination of technical difficulties or incompetence. His focus is on the potential for lives to be lost...2/6
as side-effects of lockdowns (e.g., global starvation). However there is another simpler point that I want to emphasize: if containment falters and we reach some form of population immunity without trying to, than even just from the standpoint of COVID mortality, 3/6
we will have many unnecessary deaths compared with what would be sustained in a targeted strategy to reach population immunity. The question of precisely what should be done in the face of significant uncertainty is a difficult one, ... 4/6
and the right answer probably involves a combination of strategies, employed differently in different places. But thinking clearly about these options to enable good decision-making requires us to acknowledge the uncertainty in all of our options, while also seriously ... 5/6
engaging with the risks and possibilities of each. Scientific discourse, rather than advocacy, should provide the path to making evidence-based decisions. 6/6
On this side of the big pond, there is a widesprea refusal to even consider the notion that health care will collapse with no economy. The blind faith in "just stay at home a little longer" is frustrating.
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