Daniel SwainOvjeren akaunt

@Weather_West

Climate scientist at , , and . Author of the Weather West blog. Approximately dry adiabatic.

Vrijeme pridruživanja: studeni 2013.

Medijski sadržaj

  1. New work by Frances Davenport reveals "exponential response of streamflow to rain/snow fraction over western U.S. ... [implying] large potential for continued warming to increase flood risk, even without changes in precip frequency, magnitude, or timing."

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  2. Another recent perspective on role of low indoor (& outdoor) humidity in increasing transmissibility and spread of viruses. I was genuinely surprised how important a factor ambient atmospheric moisture is for infectious disease transmission...

  3. Also: rising odds of record-warm temperatures across portions of California this weekend, especially across north. Ensembles also suggesting that mid-level atmospheric pressure (500mb GPH) will be at record high levels for the time of year, as well.

  4. Odgovor korisniku/ci

    While confidence in sub-seasonal projections decreases after 10-14 days, there are currently unusually strong hints that an even warmer and drier pattern could persist into February, driven by strong and persistent high pressure over the northeastern Pacific.

  5. Sierra Nevada snowpack is presently below average (75%), though not terrible (by recent standards). Total seasonal precip deficits have been rising, and now most of state (except far south coastal CA) is below average since Oct 1, w/largest deficits in NorCal.

  6. High likelihood of broad high pressure ridge over NE Pacific that will keep much of California mostly dry for the next 10-14 days, with well below average precip and well above average temperatures at what is typically wettest/coolest part of year.

  7. Although occasional precipitation will fall across Northern California, there's growing multi-model agreement that conditions will continue to be drier and warmer than average for rest of Jan and into first part of Feb across California as NE Pacific ridge builds.

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  9. Thereafter, ensembles suggest a return to drier & less cool pattern, w/ below-avg precipitation across all of California for at least a week or so. Right now, it's not looking like January precip will be enough to reverse growing seasonal precip deficit in NorCal to date.

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  10. Modestly unsettled & cool pattern will occur across California over the next 7-10 days. Light to moderate precipitation, w/low-ish snow levels (<3,000 ft NorCal) will allow for respectable mountain snow accums. Cold Arctic airmass over PacNW will not make it to CA, however.

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  11. 2. sij

    However, GFS ensemble is more aggressive with this Arctic outbreak than ECMWF. GFS pattern would have the potential to bring widespread sea level snowfall to PacNW & extreme cold to Rockies; ECMWF is much less extreme. Will be interesting to watch this evolve...

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  12. 2. sij

    Thereafter, a major pattern change will evolve around Jan 10. A strong blocking high pressure system will develop near Aleutian Islands, possibly leading to an Arctic outbreak across the West. A very cold and unsettled pattern may develop as a result.

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  13. 2. sij

    Dry conditions with temperatures close to average for the time of year will ring in the first week of the new decade across California. Only a bit of light precipitation possible across far northern California.

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  14. Same bus route today; another sunny day flood. Driver asks dispatcher "is the Manzanita stop open today?" Apparently yes, as the bus sloshes through.

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  15. Respectably strong & cold "outside slider" storm will bring significant rainfall & heavy (1-2 ft) mountain snowfall in Southern California Wed/Thurs. Coastal downpours and iso. t-storm possible. Storm will mostly miss NorCal, which will see only few showers out of this one.

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  16. Odgovor korisniku/ci

    There was the 8,000 acre Lockheed Fire near Bonny Doon in 2009, but otherwise...no. In fact, there have been none even going back to 1950 or earlier! Luck has played big role...the risk is definitely there (though extreme fire weather conditions rarer than in North/East Bay).

  17. "Dirty ridge" will persist over California this week, allowing for occasional light precip to intrude across NorCal. Indications of more widespread active (& cooler) pattern throughout CA later in Dec. No huge storms on horizon, but looking refreshingly like winter.

  18. Odgovor korisnicima

    While I wait for a more nuanced response from , here's the most up-to-date sea level data from the San Francisco tidal gauge. Long-term trend is obvious, but also interesting is fact that last few years have been consistently elevated. Source:

  19. Taking bus back to airport following , we're confronted by "sunny-day flooding" along Bay. Following season of "Public Safety Power Shutoffs" due to wildfire risk, I am struck by growing prevalence of euphemisms for daily disruptions caused by .

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