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To put climate extremes into perspective we measure against the average. The sigma is the standard deviation of a normal distribution of expected values. In this case the heat dome sigma max is 4.4 - that means it's outside of 99.99% of expected values or a 1/10,000+ chance (1/2)pic.twitter.com/8raIMAngkg
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Now once you get into the extreme tail of a distribution (in this case right side) numeric chances are very sensitive to slight changes. But it seems accurate to say that a heat dome (thickness of heat column in this "specific spot") is a 1/1000 yr event or greater. Continued...pic.twitter.com/lbKwl3ItQd
Of course that is the historical probability... Climate heating is making this a lot more likely. And the fact that we have seen two historic heat waves in the West in back to back weeks is evidence of that. Now of course, in certain natural patterns the West is prone to these..
More on my wall... https://twitter.com/WeatherProf Because I am clearly not capable of producing a cohesive thread and somehow screwed that up ughhh
We should make a comparision with the dust bowl heat waves such as July 1930, July 1934, July 1936, July 1937 and July 1941. I think only July 1936 can have similar values. Not even July 2019 european heat wave can stand the comparision with this.
That's a strong statement from an expert like you!!
Conservation of energy?
@PaulHBeckwith @ZLabe @KrVaSt @MarkCranfield_ @jlounsbury59 @JimBair62221006
Even the sea ice maximum extent is at -4σ this last winter.
Great and clear reporting @WeatherProf
Thank you Peter!!
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