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William E. Spriggs
@WSpriggs
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The 2nd Quarter GDP numbers showed a continued slowdown in construction investment. This is the one area where the matters, and has already had clear effect. It is also the only area of current price hikes the Fed can address. Further hikes are not necessary.
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However, there is reason for caution as the Fed raised interest rates by another 0.75 percentage points, in an attempt to curb inflation. Effects from this hike will show up in the months ahead. 5/
reuters.com/markets/us/fed
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The National Academy of @socialinsurance and The Policy Academies are pleased to announce the selection of two inaugural Kilolo Kijakazi Fellows: @soyfelipejuan and Keandra Davis @VCUWilderSchool
Learn more about their work and the Fellowship: bit.ly/3b7F0Gn
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Today's unemployment claim data show the labor market is stable. Nothing to suggest we are in a recession. But, with the GDP numbers, clearly the economy faces strong headwinds. will be to blame is this reverses, since it is clearly warned by today's numbers.
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UI numbers dropped this week after growing for the last 3 weeks! 256K new claims (SA), that’s 5K lower than the revised level of 261K last week but 12K higher than two weeks ago and 54% higher than their low in March. 1/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/
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This falling measure of inflation is what many at the consider to be the key measure of price pressures. But, in a world of unprecedented shocks to goods and services like auto production, travel, and construction, even it should be considered volatile.
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Further inflation data will be available with the release of the personal income report tomorrow. In this report we found out that quarterly core PCE price index rose at a 4.4 percent annualized rate, slowing from recent quarters although still elevated. 11/
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A very key point is that, as planned by , fiscal policy--government spending--was set by the American Rescue Plan to reverse to a drag on the economy, this was to reduce the deficit forced by spending on COVID effects. Don't blame inflation on fiscal policy.
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Government subtracted from estimated growth in Q2, reflecting declines in both Federal and State and local spending. 8/
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This indicator of economic activity is often taken as the best characterization of the economic growth domestic policy controls, and it shows we are in a stable economy. characterization that slowing this would help inflation is a political statement
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Private domestic final purchases (PDFP), which removes net exports, inventories, and government consumption and investment, is estimated to have grown by 0.0 percent at an annualized rate. 3/
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Within this thread, is a clear indication that personal consumption after rebounding is now stabilized. Because of American Rescue Plan, the stability of households is our only engine pushing us forward, and not at an accelerating rate. is ignoring facts
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Last week, CEA released a blog post outlining how economists determine whether the economy is in a recession. 14/ whitehouse.gov/cea/written-ma
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This thread is important because it shows the headwinds the economy faces. It means it is irresponsible to characterize the economy as over heating. The economy is stabilizing to the shock of the COVID pandemic, while negotiating continued COVID disruptions, War and climate
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Today’s report—the advance estimate of second quarter GDP in 2022—shows that the U.S. economy contracted over the second three months of the year, primarily reflecting drags on growth from inventories, residential investment and government purchases. 1/
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#AEASP22 is over and I could not be more thankful for the experience. Thank you to the wonderful people and mentors at . Here are pics from the closing ceremony with .
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Accepting unemployment 2 control inflation is as wrong now as when #CSK spoke out h/t #ConscriptArmy 📈
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“Accepting unemployment to control inflation amounts to choosing the people at the very bottom of the economic pyramid to bear the entire economic burden. In the so-called war against inflation, America’s…unemployed have been the…conscript army.” - Coretta Scott King.
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I also want to thank & Dr. Swinton for their willingness to answer all the questions I had😅. They exemplified what mentorship means and should be through these 8 weeks.
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thanks, nytimes.com/2022/07/26/opi, but I like the idea of the Business Cycle Dating Committee, and note that there is no 'reverse' Sahm rule to call the trough.
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"If we didn’t have the NBER. to make the determination, there would be a good case for viewing the Sahm Rule not as a predictor but as a definition: A recession has begun when the Sahm Rule says it has. And right now, the rule emphatically does not say that we’re in a recession."
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Our faculty presenting her paper “Affirmative Action & Demand for Schooling: Evidence from Nationwide Policies” #NBERSI #Development #EconTwitter Great Job Ana! 👏🏾
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Being a Howard student means gaining access to some of the best learning experiences- both inside and outside of the classroom. See what our Bison are up to this summer! 💙❤️
#bisonsummers #Howardintern
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. warns Fed against “manufactured recession that puts millions of Americans out of work” h/t 📈
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Great insights in @SenWarren open that the @federalreserve is leading our discussion on confronting rising prices in all the wrong directions. In the end the @federalreserve is making a political debate blaming an overheated economy; not our global crisis
wsj.com/articles/jerom
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@nberpubs Faculty Research Fellows @aviceisza @Spelman_Econ and @jevaygrooms @HowardEcon at the #NBERSI the two #HBCU faculty to be Faculty Research Fellows.
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Great insights in open that the is leading our discussion on confronting rising prices in all the wrong directions. In the end the is making a political debate blaming an overheated economy; not our global crisis
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Future Dr. Perry you're one of a kind. I am so happy I got to know you! I can't wait to see your success 😁.
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As hospitals reach capacity high risk Black patients are more likely to die compared to their white counterparts.
#NBERSI #EconTwitter
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A huge thank you to and #OmariSwinton for a life changing summer in Washington DC with the #AEASP2022 ! Best summer and best people by far, including . Until we meet again!
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"We need many things today, but a recession ain’t one of them."
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“It has amazed me that this is even a discussion,” Claudia Sahm told me. “Yes, a recession is worse than inflation.”nytimes.com/2022/07/20/opi nytimes.com/2022/07/20/opi
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Exciting panel on Black worker organizing Panelists Jerome Scott . Moderators Toussaint Losier. Check it out
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It was fantastic to meet this group of students last night. Great program and great students
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A lot Econ would not exist if “Nothing about us without us” was a thing. It’s threatening to White scholars because they have built a world where they are the originators of knowledge, and acknowledging the deficiencies in their research is a direct attack on white supremacy.
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“Nothing about us without us.” - Kitt Carpenter on the importance of including diverse coauthors when researching diverse topics. 
#EconTwitter @LGBTPolicyLabVU #AEASP2022
#EconTwitter @LGBTPolicyLabVU #AEASP20221
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Just a group of future economists #EconTwitter
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@HowardEcon #AEASP2022 Picture ahead of tonight's awards banquet at @federalreserve @AEACSMGEP
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It was our pleasure, . Haroldo is amazing. I appreciate his intelligence and his passion. I hope this summer experience leads him to pursue a PhD in economics, and we will continue to support him on his journey.
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1/ Excellent news: the American Economic Association is now working to make all 2023 sessions hybrid and has already recommended all job interviews be made virtual. These actions substantially address the health inequalities engendered by the New Orleans meetings
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It’s funny how the same people will insist that inflation is a macroeconomic phenomenon that has nothing to do with the prices of individual goods, and then turn around and say that inflation in Europe isn't really as high as in the US, because there it’s all the price of energy.
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The last day of the #AEASP2022 😢 and this morning students are presenting their research. #EconTwitter
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Thanks to for partnering with #AEASP2022 to work with Haroldo Nesbeth this summer for his work on the refundable child tax credit
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Just wow! Just wow!
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Only in Texas: the Texas Education Agency is proposing to the State Board of Education (who decides state curriculum) to change the word “slavery” to “involuntary relocation”. The SBOE hearings on social studies curriculum are this summer. @UnitedSua
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Only in Texas: the Texas Education Agency is proposing to the State Board of Education (who decides state curriculum) to change the word “slavery” to “involuntary relocation”. The SBOE hearings on social studies curriculum are this summer.
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One thing I’ve noticed in economic policy discussions is the use of competitive market language to describe monopolistic and monopsonistic markets. The Econ 101 language is actually a rhetorical trap. What new language should we use?
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The forecast from the for a second straight quarter of negative GDP growth should make everyone scratch their heads why the Fed wants to slow growth. There is no soft landing for a plane in a stall that cuts engines.
GDPNow atlantafed.org/cqer/research/ via
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. Chair closes hearing on investing in children that if jobs paid a living wage, we wouldn't need as robust of safety net programs - but until that is the case we need #childcare #CTC #SNAP and more to ensure an equitable future.
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What a summer it has been with the #AEASP2022 Scholars. But it’s not over yet! We currently have none other than #CeciliaConrad & discussing how her path in economics led her to where she is now. #EconTwitter
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