I've been fairly good at anticipating the general direction of the planetary crisis and our responses over the last 25 years. Was asked recently what I thought would shift on our understanding of climate over the next stage, say by 2025. Here's an off-the-cuff list:
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(thread) 1. I think we will increasingly identify 2º C as a potentially catastrophic level of warming, even as our window to act in any way that would keep us under 2º C closes.
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2. I think we will increasingly see, with tragic clarity, that catastrophe is a spectrum. That is, that we will (/have) likely set in motion truly disastrous consequences, but we'll see that much worse consequences will arise the longer we delay disruptive climate action.
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2a. I think we're coming to see now that the idea that climate victory means no we experience no dire consequences is already outdated and unreal. We'll start to get a grip on what the range of consequences actually is, and to understand the effectively existential risks ahead.
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3. I'm pretty sure the idea that climate change is a collective action problem will not survive this decade, and climate politics will increasingly be seen as inherently conflictual, zero-sum (between old economy and new) and multi-polar in geopolitical terms.
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Serious question, w/ the positive feedback cycles like melting permafrost, ocean acidification / imminent carbon burps, forests now put out more carbon than they take in etc. etc. etc., absent geo-engineering, aren't we trying to shut a barn door after the barn has burned down?
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