(luckiest is probably avoiding full scale nuclear war)
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Archduke Ferdinand's driver missing the memo that the return route had changed, combined with Gavrilo Princip deciding he wanted a sandwich
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seems like ww1 could easily have started some other way
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answer i had in mind was how evenly matched the two sides were in ww1
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Hitler surviving WW1
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not improbable enough i think
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though arguably that's also true of nukes
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The Black Death, maybe?
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what's the evidence for bad luck here? as opposed to expected huge disaster
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541 plague (same illness) might have spread due to much cooler climate during 530s and 540s. Famine due to cold a double whammy. Ended the classical world.
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the failure of the Norse colonization of North America to flourish
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why was that improbable and bad?
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being transatlantic hundreds of years early would have been a big boost to our progression I think, natural resource trade + frontierism
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and it doesn't even seem like there was some big disaster that stopped it, more like they just lost interest
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IDK it's hard to think of something that big-picture matters and wasn't just an expression of historical inevitabilities
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Those prehistoric population bottlenecks seem pretty unlucky, even though we came through them
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do they? i don't know much about them
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Mmm I'm not sure anymore. Maybe the material conditions that made us constantly almost go extinct for a long time were very unlucky and the material conditions that made us constantly not go extinct despite the other conditions were very lucky.
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the Babylonian Conquest, resulting in the Babylonian Captivity, resulting in the fusion of the worst of Hebrew thought with the worst of Akkado-Chaldean thought into a hybrid-vigor monstrosity that would later merge with the worst of Hellenic thought to wreak true devastation
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That time we accidentally killed the son of God
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