"we're the first" predicts this but only for a pretty limited parameter range i think
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i think most of the parameter range predicts either very beginning of stelliferous or (like zoo hypothesis) predicts random moment within it
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though idk if the relevant period is stelliferous or some part of it where a further condition obtains
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or i mean, i don't actually know what zoo hypothesis predicts. but i mean hypotheses that predict the stars continue their natural evolution
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looks like maybe science doesn't know what the relevant era is either https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.08448
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btw i think the "presumptuous philosopher"-like argument you're making for lots of earthlike civs predicts lots of other weird stuff
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if prior of being typical civ is zillions of times prior of being first, then prior for universe having secret civs out wazoo much higher
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also almost certain a priori that 21st century like periods happen countless times in history of earth
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Can you spell this one out a little more? We seem young and alone, so if we're typical then either our hidden-from-each-other civilizations have short lives or they have short memories. Is that it?
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if "my hypothesis predicts more civilizations so it's more likely" is good reasoning then it should work for time too
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depending on how many 21st century like civilizations you can cram into history of earth and how unlikely that state of affairs is ofc
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @preinfarction and
but then maybe the earth is actually a lot older than it seems! there's not really a limit to the madness
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @preinfarction and
that ensues if you use "let's act as if everything is way different from how it seems because then population is way way higher" principle
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