"we're the first" predicts this but only for a pretty limited parameter range i think
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i think most of the parameter range predicts either very beginning of stelliferous or (like zoo hypothesis) predicts random moment within it
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though idk if the relevant period is stelliferous or some part of it where a further condition obtains
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or i mean, i don't actually know what zoo hypothesis predicts. but i mean hypotheses that predict the stars continue their natural evolution
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looks like maybe science doesn't know what the relevant era is either https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.08448
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btw i think the "presumptuous philosopher"-like argument you're making for lots of earthlike civs predicts lots of other weird stuff
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if prior of being typical civ is zillions of times prior of being first, then prior for universe having secret civs out wazoo much higher
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also almost certain a priori that 21st century like periods happen countless times in history of earth
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it's a weird situation to have empirical evidence and practical considerations (more impact) going one way, priors other way
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which to me suggests maybe think of priors and (proportionally large) practical considerations as a single thing that basically cancels out
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leaving only the pretty strong empirical evidence that the universe looks uninhabited
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btw room temperature universe also interesting https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.0613.pdf …
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