i think we're too close to the beginning of the stelliferous era for a truly copernican answer to make sense. not sure though
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Can you spell this one out a little more? We seem young and alone, so if we're typical then either our hidden-from-each-other civilizations have short lives or they have short memories. Is that it?
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if "my hypothesis predicts more civilizations so it's more likely" is good reasoning then it should work for time too
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depending on how many 21st century like civilizations you can cram into history of earth and how unlikely that state of affairs is ofc
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but then maybe the earth is actually a lot older than it seems! there's not really a limit to the madness
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that ensues if you use "let's act as if everything is way different from how it seems because then population is way way higher" principle
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"there's no limit to the madness" isn't a real argument, of course. but maybe it is of heuristic intuition-building value
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having an abnormally difficult time understanding your points here, will ask questions later
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it's a weird situation to have empirical evidence and practical considerations (more impact) going one way, priors other way
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which to me suggests maybe think of priors and (proportionally large) practical considerations as a single thing that basically cancels out
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leaving only the pretty strong empirical evidence that the universe looks uninhabited
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btw room temperature universe also interesting https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.0613.pdf …
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