i think we're too close to the beginning of the stelliferous era for a truly copernican answer to make sense. not sure though
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Can you spell this one out a little more? We seem young and alone, so if we're typical then either our hidden-from-each-other civilizations have short lives or they have short memories. Is that it?
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if "my hypothesis predicts more civilizations so it's more likely" is good reasoning then it should work for time too
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it's a weird situation to have empirical evidence and practical considerations (more impact) going one way, priors other way
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which to me suggests maybe think of priors and (proportionally large) practical considerations as a single thing that basically cancels out
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