But I feel like a more Copernican answer is likely and we just don't know it yet. If it's physically unlikely on its face but I still want a physical explanation. It would be very frightening to find that we are in one of countless simulations of the original planet
if prior of being typical civ is zillions of times prior of being first, then prior for universe having secret civs out wazoo much higher
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also almost certain a priori that 21st century like periods happen countless times in history of earth
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Can you spell this one out a little more? We seem young and alone, so if we're typical then either our hidden-from-each-other civilizations have short lives or they have short memories. Is that it?
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if "my hypothesis predicts more civilizations so it's more likely" is good reasoning then it should work for time too
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depending on how many 21st century like civilizations you can cram into history of earth and how unlikely that state of affairs is ofc
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but then maybe the earth is actually a lot older than it seems! there's not really a limit to the madness
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that ensues if you use "let's act as if everything is way different from how it seems because then population is way way higher" principle
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"there's no limit to the madness" isn't a real argument, of course. but maybe it is of heuristic intuition-building value
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having an abnormally difficult time understanding your points here, will ask questions later
End of conversation
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