What I'm trying to say is that ultimately these discussions come down to Anthropics, which is cursed
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btw i think the "presumptuous philosopher"-like argument you're making for lots of earthlike civs predicts lots of other weird stuff
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if prior of being typical civ is zillions of times prior of being first, then prior for universe having secret civs out wazoo much higher
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the sun is on a logarithmic scale almost as old as the entire universe. i don't have an argument for why this seems weird but it does
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