i don't see the chain of reasoning from "your estimates are ill-calibrated" to "it makes sense to spread money"
as long as the EU from a marginal dollar doesn't depend on other dollars you've allocated, not spreading optimal
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this assumption can break in cases like charities running out of room for funding, of course
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but i don't see why an awareness that you may be undercorrecting for bad calibration would do it
End of conversation
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