rather amazing that nobody in this thread seems to know or care how many % the confidence interval ishttps://twitter.com/katy_milkman/status/1244668082062348291 …
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Vessel Of Spirit Retweeted Katherine Milkman
rather amazing that nobody in this thread seems to know or care how many % the confidence interval ishttps://twitter.com/katy_milkman/status/1244668082062348291 …
Vessel Of Spirit added,
even a perfect predictor is going to have the real outcome fall outside their interval some of the time
if it's say 90%, that doesn't mean the answer should be in 90% of the experts' intervals. it means across many questions 90% of the answers should be in any expert's interval
(above where i said "perfect" i meant perfectly calibrated)
"It's astounding how few experts' confidence intervals included the correct estimate " is just wrong. some of the time it's perfectly reasonable for ALL expert confidence intervals to fail to include the correct estimate
like if i roll 99 on a d100 all the dice experts in the world will have been wrong when they predicted between 6 and 95. most of the time that won't happen but some of the time it will. it's not astounding
Adam Strandberg Retweeted
i agree in principle but https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1244970387596853254 …
Adam Strandberg added,
given that, i think the bigger objection is who are these "experts"
if the claim is just "the experts underestimated cases and this reflects badly on them", i have no problem with it
also a lot of the intervals do look narrow enough that they imply a very low probability on what actually happened (though i'd want to see them in log space)
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