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VesselOfSpirit's profile
Vessel Of Spirit
Vessel Of Spirit
Vessel Of Spirit
@VesselOfSpirit

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Vessel Of Spirit

@VesselOfSpirit

BAC, THIS.

weird.solar
Joined May 2014

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    1. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit Mar 31
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      Vessel Of Spirit Retweeted Katherine Milkman

      rather amazing that nobody in this thread seems to know or care how many % the confidence interval ishttps://twitter.com/katy_milkman/status/1244668082062348291 …

      Vessel Of Spirit added,

      Katherine MilkmanVerified account @katy_milkman
      Overconfidence is a pernicious bias, even in experts. It's astounding how few experts' confidence intervals included the correct estimate of #COVID19 infections in the US by 3/29 when forecasting for just two weeks in the future. (of course, non-expert estimates are even worse) pic.twitter.com/pa6oMDp2wV
      1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit Mar 31
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      even a perfect predictor is going to have the real outcome fall outside their interval some of the time

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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    3. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit Mar 31
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      if it's say 90%, that doesn't mean the answer should be in 90% of the experts' intervals. it means across many questions 90% of the answers should be in any expert's interval

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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    4. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit Mar 31
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      (above where i said "perfect" i meant perfectly calibrated)

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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    5. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit Mar 31
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      "It's astounding how few experts' confidence intervals included the correct estimate " is just wrong. some of the time it's perfectly reasonable for ALL expert confidence intervals to fail to include the correct estimate

      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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    6. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit Mar 31
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      like if i roll 99 on a d100 all the dice experts in the world will have been wrong when they predicted between 6 and 95. most of the time that won't happen but some of the time it will. it's not astounding

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Adam Strandberg‏ @The_Lagrangian Mar 31
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      Replying to @VesselOfSpirit

      Adam Strandberg Retweeted

      i agree in principle but https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1244970387596853254 …

      Adam Strandberg added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.
      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit Mar 31
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      Replying to @The_Lagrangian

      "how can that not be in your confidence distribution?" it's easy. if you expect that growth will slow, continued exponential growth is outside the middle n% of your prediction

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit Mar 31
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      Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @The_Lagrangian

      the experts were wrong about this, but just because they were wrong about a thing, that doesn't mean they're insanely overconfident or whatever

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit Mar 31
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      Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @The_Lagrangian

      we can't even know HOW wrong they were without knowing how many % the confidence interval is. which nobody in that thread seems interested in

      6:53 AM - 31 Mar 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit Mar 31
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          Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @The_Lagrangian

          and it's not like this was a question we randomly chose to look at. we're looking at it BECAUSE the experts were wrong on it

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit Mar 31
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          Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @The_Lagrangian

          (in part)

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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