rather amazing that nobody in this thread seems to know or care how many % the confidence interval ishttps://twitter.com/katy_milkman/status/1244668082062348291 …
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"how can that not be in your confidence distribution?" it's easy. if you expect that growth will slow, continued exponential growth is outside the middle n% of your prediction
the experts were wrong about this, but just because they were wrong about a thing, that doesn't mean they're insanely overconfident or whatever
we can't even know HOW wrong they were without knowing how many % the confidence interval is. which nobody in that thread seems interested in
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