rather amazing that nobody in this thread seems to know or care how many % the confidence interval ishttps://twitter.com/katy_milkman/status/1244668082062348291 …
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(i'm not saying that experts aren't overconfident. just that the argument in the quoted tweet doesn't work)
i agree in principle but https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1244970387596853254 …
"how can that not be in your confidence distribution?" it's easy. if you expect that growth will slow, continued exponential growth is outside the middle n% of your prediction
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