rather amazing that nobody in this thread seems to know or care how many % the confidence interval ishttps://twitter.com/katy_milkman/status/1244668082062348291 …
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"when forecasting for just two weeks in the future" why does that matter when it's about calibration. it means it's easier to predict but also the intervals will be smaller
like if i roll 99 on a d100 all the dice experts in the world will have been wrong when they predicted between 6 and 95. most of the time that won't happen but some of the time it will. it's not astounding
May be so, but then we’re severely over-provisioned in experts, beyond surge capacity in # of topics needing opinions.
is that an if-then then or a then-again then
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