rather amazing that nobody in this thread seems to know or care how many % the confidence interval ishttps://twitter.com/katy_milkman/status/1244668082062348291 …
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if it's say 90%, that doesn't mean the answer should be in 90% of the experts' intervals. it means across many questions 90% of the answers should be in any expert's interval
(above where i said "perfect" i meant perfectly calibrated)
"It's astounding how few experts' confidence intervals included the correct estimate " is just wrong. some of the time it's perfectly reasonable for ALL expert confidence intervals to fail to include the correct estimate
"when forecasting for just two weeks in the future" why does that matter when it's about calibration. it means it's easier to predict but also the intervals will be smaller
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