even a perfect predictor is going to have the real outcome fall outside their interval some of the time
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if it's say 90%, that doesn't mean the answer should be in 90% of the experts' intervals. it means across many questions 90% of the answers should be in any expert's interval
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(above where i said "perfect" i meant perfectly calibrated)
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"It's astounding how few experts' confidence intervals included the correct estimate " is just wrong. some of the time it's perfectly reasonable for ALL expert confidence intervals to fail to include the correct estimate
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"when forecasting for just two weeks in the future" why does that matter when it's about calibration. it means it's easier to predict but also the intervals will be smaller
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End of conversation
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