Recent AI progress isn't sustainable because it's driven by rapid increases in the expenditure for compute. Anticipate another three years or so of accelerating progress, then a gradual dissipation of the results of that progress into the economy over a generation.https://twitter.com/nosilverv/status/1194203923957071872 …
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i would also agree there's a pretty wide range of uncertainty, i'm just saying on expectation it's a reason to expect a slowdown
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A slowdown in what? In compute or in Intelligence?
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It's also the case that d(Int)/d(TheoryEffort) is an increasing function of compute. I think this is what people are not modelling.
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So even if the growth in compute slows down eventually (and that must happen, because it's growing anomalously fast at the moment), we may be in a place where theory can advance much faster because it's so much easier to test ideas.
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