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VesselOfSpirit's profile
Vessel Of Spirit
Vessel Of Spirit
Vessel Of Spirit
@VesselOfSpirit

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Vessel Of Spirit

@VesselOfSpirit

BAC, THIS.

weird.solar
Joined May 2014

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    1. michael vassar‏ @HiFromMichaelV 12 Nov 2019
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      michael vassar Retweeted Rival Voices ❁

      Recent AI progress isn't sustainable because it's driven by rapid increases in the expenditure for compute. Anticipate another three years or so of accelerating progress, then a gradual dissipation of the results of that progress into the economy over a generation.https://twitter.com/nosilverv/status/1194203923957071872 …

      michael vassar added,

      Rival Voices ❁ @nosilverv
      Maybe @HiFromMichaelV?
      Show this thread
      2 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
    2. Roko Mijic‏ @RokoMijicUK 12 Nov 2019
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      Replying to @HiFromMichaelV

      > Recent AI progress isn't sustainable because it's driven by rapid increases in the expenditure for compute. Anticipate another three years or so of accelerating progress Bullshit. It is both false that we only have another 3 years of growth in available compute for AI, and ..

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Roko Mijic‏ @RokoMijicUK 12 Nov 2019
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      Replying to @RokoMijicUK @HiFromMichaelV

      .. it is false that only increases in compute matter at the moment.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit 12 Nov 2019
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      Replying to @RokoMijicUK @HiFromMichaelV

      seems to me unsustainability of compute growth is important, see e.g. https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/ … but more of a reason to expect a one-off downward step change in growth rate than s-curve saturation

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Roko Mijic‏ @RokoMijicUK 12 Nov 2019
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      Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @HiFromMichaelV

      We have to be careful about curve extrapolation. The size and cost of experiments is increasing, but that doesn't mean that the only way to ever do more compute is to pay more $. The economy does the easiest thing to solve a problem first.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Roko Mijic‏ @RokoMijicUK 12 Nov 2019
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      Replying to @RokoMijicUK @VesselOfSpirit @HiFromMichaelV

      If you are currently spending $1M on hardware for an experiment, then it almost certainly *is* cheaper to just spend $10M than to develop specialized hardware (which would cost $billions) Until experiments are pushing the limits of tech company budgets, we won't really know ...

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Roko Mijic‏ @RokoMijicUK 12 Nov 2019
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      Replying to @RokoMijicUK @VesselOfSpirit @HiFromMichaelV

      ... whether it is possible to squeeze large factors out of specialized hardware etc.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Roko Mijic‏ @RokoMijicUK 12 Nov 2019
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      Replying to @RokoMijicUK @VesselOfSpirit @HiFromMichaelV

      The same thing applies to the distribution of performance gains between hardware and theory advances. If you are only spending $1M on hardware, the it is *by far* cheaper to just spend another $9M than to make a new theory breakthrough.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit 12 Nov 2019
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      Replying to @RokoMijicUK @HiFromMichaelV

      i agree running out of low hanging fruit doesn't mean you run out of fruit but it's a reason to adjust expected fruit harvesting rate downward

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Roko Mijic‏ @RokoMijicUK 12 Nov 2019
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      Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @HiFromMichaelV

      I'm not so sure. The rate of progress in the outcomes we care about could increase, while progress in compute decreases. At very high levels of compute, the rate of progress in theory could actually increase so that overall you get better outcomes more quickly.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit 12 Nov 2019
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      Replying to @RokoMijicUK @HiFromMichaelV

      i would agree d(impact)/d(investment) could increase even given some slowdown in d(intelligence)/d(investment) because it's plausible that d(impact)/d(intelligence) is strongly increasing

      2:15 PM - 12 Nov 2019
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        1. New conversation
        2. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit 12 Nov 2019
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          Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @RokoMijicUK @HiFromMichaelV

          i would also agree there's a pretty wide range of uncertainty, i'm just saying on expectation it's a reason to expect a slowdown

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Roko Mijic‏ @RokoMijicUK 12 Nov 2019
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          Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @HiFromMichaelV

          A slowdown in what? In compute or in Intelligence?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Roko Mijic‏ @RokoMijicUK 12 Nov 2019
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          Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @HiFromMichaelV

          It's also the case that d(Int)/d(TheoryEffort) is an increasing function of compute. I think this is what people are not modelling.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Roko Mijic‏ @RokoMijicUK 12 Nov 2019
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          Replying to @RokoMijicUK @VesselOfSpirit @HiFromMichaelV

          So even if the growth in compute slows down eventually (and that must happen, because it's growing anomalously fast at the moment), we may be in a place where theory can advance much faster because it's so much easier to test ideas.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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