Recent AI progress isn't sustainable because it's driven by rapid increases in the expenditure for compute. Anticipate another three years or so of accelerating progress, then a gradual dissipation of the results of that progress into the economy over a generation.https://twitter.com/nosilverv/status/1194203923957071872 …
i agree running out of low hanging fruit doesn't mean you run out of fruit but it's a reason to adjust expected fruit harvesting rate downward
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I'm not so sure. The rate of progress in the outcomes we care about could increase, while progress in compute decreases. At very high levels of compute, the rate of progress in theory could actually increase so that overall you get better outcomes more quickly.
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i would agree d(impact)/d(investment) could increase even given some slowdown in d(intelligence)/d(investment) because it's plausible that d(impact)/d(intelligence) is strongly increasing
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(even if it's just running out of one particular kind of low hanging fruit)
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