Recent AI progress isn't sustainable because it's driven by rapid increases in the expenditure for compute. Anticipate another three years or so of accelerating progress, then a gradual dissipation of the results of that progress into the economy over a generation.https://twitter.com/nosilverv/status/1194203923957071872 …
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Replying to @HiFromMichaelV
> Recent AI progress isn't sustainable because it's driven by rapid increases in the expenditure for compute. Anticipate another three years or so of accelerating progress Bullshit. It is both false that we only have another 3 years of growth in available compute for AI, and ..
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Replying to @RokoMijicUK @HiFromMichaelV
.. it is false that only increases in compute matter at the moment.
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Replying to @RokoMijicUK @HiFromMichaelV
seems to me unsustainability of compute growth is important, see e.g. https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/ … but more of a reason to expect a one-off downward step change in growth rate than s-curve saturation
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like maybe ai will get as much smarter in the 2025-2035 window as in the 2020-2024 window, but that's still a huge deal
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