Recent AI progress isn't sustainable because it's driven by rapid increases in the expenditure for compute. Anticipate another three years or so of accelerating progress, then a gradual dissipation of the results of that progress into the economy over a generation.https://twitter.com/nosilverv/status/1194203923957071872 …
seems to me unsustainability of compute growth is important, see e.g. https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/ … but more of a reason to expect a one-off downward step change in growth rate than s-curve saturation
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We have to be careful about curve extrapolation. The size and cost of experiments is increasing, but that doesn't mean that the only way to ever do more compute is to pay more $. The economy does the easiest thing to solve a problem first.
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If you are currently spending $1M on hardware for an experiment, then it almost certainly *is* cheaper to just spend $10M than to develop specialized hardware (which would cost $billions) Until experiments are pushing the limits of tech company budgets, we won't really know ...
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like maybe ai will get as much smarter in the 2025-2035 window as in the 2020-2024 window, but that's still a huge deal
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