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VesselOfSpirit's profile
Vessel Of Spirit
Vessel Of Spirit
Vessel Of Spirit
@VesselOfSpirit

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Vessel Of Spirit

@VesselOfSpirit

BAC, THIS.

weird.solar
Joined May 2014

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    1. Roko Mijic‏ @RokoMijicUK 16 Oct 2019
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      Replying to @wtgowers @slothrop12 @XiXiDu

      The threat to humanity from biodiversity loss is vastly smaller than the threat from climate change. "Ecosystem collapse" is a disingenuous idea; as far as I am aware there is no scientific evidence that an ecosystem that's crucial to humans is likely to "collapse".

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Timothy Gowers‏ @wtgowers 16 Oct 2019
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      Replying to @RokoMijicUK @slothrop12 @XiXiDu

      I'm interested in what you say here. Of the many negative consequences of climate change, which do you see as the ones that are vastly more important than biodiversity loss (which could cause food shortages, new spread of diseases, etc.)?

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Roko Mijic‏ @RokoMijicUK 16 Oct 2019
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      Replying to @wtgowers @slothrop12 @XiXiDu

      @anderssandberg from FHI told me that the most dangerous possibility from CC is that the climate does something nasty on a timescale we're not prepared for, and then the effects on *human* systems like supply chains, oil production, wars, etc actually finish us off.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Roko Mijic‏ @RokoMijicUK 16 Oct 2019
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      Replying to @RokoMijicUK @wtgowers and

      IOW it's not a cascading failure of natural systems we should worry about, it's a cascading failure of human systems (which through globalization have become very fragile with lots of systemic risks)

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Anders Sandberg‏ @anderssandberg 16 Oct 2019
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      Replying to @RokoMijicUK @wtgowers and

      What he said. Humans can thrive in very impoverished ecosystems, but our socio-technosystem is too fragile. CC introduces forcings that test its resilience and make systemic risks worse.

      2 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
    6. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit 16 Oct 2019
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      Replying to @anderssandberg @RokoMijicUK @XiXiDu

      isn't that true of every problem, though? are there any reasons to think CC will be more disruptive to our socio-technosystem than many other phenomena with similar direct GDP impacts?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Roko Mijic‏ @RokoMijicUK 16 Oct 2019
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      Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @anderssandberg @XiXiDu

      No, I don't think so, but CC is one of the few things that we are reasonably confident will have that kind of impact. There are others like wars, AI-disasters, bioterrorism, etc but this is a discussion about CC so we should do it justice here.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit 16 Oct 2019
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      Replying to @RokoMijicUK @anderssandberg @XiXiDu

      i think there are many problems each of which has direct effects that can be expected to shrink the world economy by a few % over the next century (compared to counterfactual rather than to present)

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Roko Mijic‏ @RokoMijicUK 16 Oct 2019
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      Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @anderssandberg @XiXiDu

      The tails of global warming could be much worse than that though, and I think the really risky scenarios are where a tail event like methane clathrate feedback does a lot of damage quite quickly and then a cascading failure ensues. This the actual danger of CC.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit 16 Oct 2019
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      Replying to @RokoMijicUK @anderssandberg @XiXiDu

      tails sound like a change of topic from your "reasonably confident" and anders's "CC introduces forcings that ... make systemic risks worse" though

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit 16 Oct 2019
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      Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @RokoMijicUK and

      fwiw i think long tails as presented by people like weitzman are somewhat fake, both because we should update on all the evidence https://researchgate.net/publication/237132619_Using_multiple_observationally-based_constraints_to_estimate_climate_sensitivity … and because as i understand it higher equilibrium sensitivity means longer time to equilibrium

      3:57 PM - 16 Oct 2019
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