The connection between dissent/heterodoxy and really effective/scalable altruism: when the systems that run the world really mess up, they tend to be stuck in a bad equilibrium where they punish individuals for pointing out the problem.
Video clip from @robertskmiles on Petrov:pic.twitter.com/zdlcRNaF7l
(claims of large numbers of close calls are intrinsically improbable)
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I don't think there is a large number of close calls. Wikipedia lists about 10. If each had a 5% probability of nuclear war, it's reasonable that we survived. And then there is some anthropic wiggle room if you believe in that stuff. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls …
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i agree 10 times 5% is reasonable. sometimes i get the impression people think it's 5 times 50%
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(not saying this stuff is wrong, just that it's wrong not to be suspicious about it being wrong)
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