One group of people got out of the Stone age once in a 100,000-200,000 year period with mostly modern minds, as far as we know. One group got out of the standard rise and fall cycle once in the following six thousand years. That's no guarantee of a repeat performance.https://twitter.com/VesselOfSpirit/status/1113881388338409472 …
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if our ancestors succeeded at clearing a one meter hurdle once, it's very likely that our descendants will succeed at clearing a ten centimeter hurdle once
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(and them having to clear the hurdle is already on the worst case end of non-existential GCRs)
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