it's a contradiction because current machine learning tech (aka, fancy linear regression, to describe it somewhat dismissively) resulting in a singularity implies a direct evolutionary path from A to B
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Replying to @hikikomorphism @michaelblume
i don't think "direct evolutionary path" is well defined enough that one can put confident constraints on what it will result in. anyway i don't know anyone who is particularly invested in the thesis that no new paradigm is needed
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also i don't think anyone in the rationalsphere is trying to create the impression that any simple modifications of current techniques could be sufficient for AGI. typical prediction is it's decades away
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which isn't hugely different from the expectations of ML researchers based on polls
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deepmind explicitly claims to be working toward AGI. that obviously doesn't mean they're close to succeeding, but they don't seem to think current techniques are mostly irrelevant to that prospect
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paul christiano seems to think AGI without a new paradigm is a possibility and he undeniably knows his stuffhttps://ai-alignment.com/prosaic-ai-control-b959644d79c2 …
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @michaelblume
that post is a more elaborate version of the claim 'human brains implement general intelligence, we can build something like a human brain without needing to understand how it intelligence works at a fundamental level' which, (a) true, and (b) would require many new ML paradigms
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @michaelblume
Why do you think current ML paradigms would allow for the replication of a human brain-equivalent system?
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Replying to @hikikomorphism @michaelblume
fwiw i'm not saying this is probable, i'm just saying that the post says we can't rule it out with high confidence (depending on the meaning of "brain-equivalent" i guess)
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(the relevant meaning of "brain-equivalent" is the one implied by the bullet points in section 1 of the linked article)
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