"science fiction" bailey: if you worry about this, you're a foolish nerd who mistakes entertainment for reality motte: well all i'm saying is it hasn't happened yet and if it does happen it will be in the future rather than the presenthttps://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1105910937289015297 …
i don't think "direct evolutionary path" is well defined enough that one can put confident constraints on what it will result in. anyway i don't know anyone who is particularly invested in the thesis that no new paradigm is needed
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also i don't think anyone in the rationalsphere is trying to create the impression that any simple modifications of current techniques could be sufficient for AGI. typical prediction is it's decades away
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which isn't hugely different from the expectations of ML researchers based on polls
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