"science fiction" bailey: if you worry about this, you're a foolish nerd who mistakes entertainment for reality motte: well all i'm saying is it hasn't happened yet and if it does happen it will be in the future rather than the presenthttps://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1105910937289015297 …
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @michaelblume
gell mann amnesia: talking about fancy linear regression as if it's deserving of AGI-type containment methods doesn't inspire confidence in one's other positions
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @michaelblume
honestly, it seems like a lot of the rationalist-sphere has a buzzword-happy science-fiction writer's level of understanding wrt AI - remember when EY wanted to get a bunch of people together to build a seed AI using a grab bag of outdated techniques and the JVM?
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Replying to @hikikomorphism @michaelblume
what makes you think a lot of the rationalist-sphere has a buzzword-happy science-fiction writer's level of understanding wrt AI other than that EY was overoptimistic about a research program 15-20 (?) years ago
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @michaelblume
what makes you think the default assumption should be one of competence when there's a clear observed incidences of dunning-kruger style behavior (not just overoptimism, choosing the wrong tools for the job)?
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not sure about default assumption, but if i read their writings then i don't see where their claims depend on SF writer level understanding, nor does it seem to be the case that familiarity with current ML predictably makes people conclude these concerns are unserious
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