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VesselOfSpirit's profile
Vessel Of Spirit
Vessel Of Spirit
Vessel Of Spirit
@VesselOfSpirit

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Vessel Of Spirit

@VesselOfSpirit

BAC, THIS.

weird.solar
Joined May 2014

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    1. Lulie‏ @reasonisfun 28 Feb 2019
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      Meta discussion impairs legibility. Meta makes it hard to work out what's being said, and to check the truth of claims. For meta isn't about the object claims. It e.g. moves focus to people, their motives, and their effects on other people — whose motives, etc. in turn mix in.

      1 reply 1 retweet 9 likes
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    2. Lulie‏ @reasonisfun 28 Feb 2019
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      Lulie Retweeted Julia Galef

      Example of meta discussion impairing legibility: Here, it's complicated to figure out what actually happened — whether it was a misunderstanding, a difference in worldview, an error, stubbornness, etc. — and 'who was right' (if anyone).https://twitter.com/juliagalef/status/1091410380499210240?s=21 …

      Lulie added,

      Julia GalefVerified account @juliagalef
      1) I'm frustrated Steven Pinker won't admit an error in Enlightenment Now. Summary: - Pinker names Stuart Russell as an expert who's skeptical of AI risk - Someone points out that's exactly backwards; Russell is one of the main experts warning about AI risk - Pinker doubles down
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Lulie‏ @reasonisfun 28 Feb 2019
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      And trying to find out whether someone is a reliable source has limited use — there are no reliable sources. The closest thing is: if you have a model of the kind of errors someone makes, you can use that to figure out what must've happened when they report something.

      3 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
      Show this thread
    4. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim 28 Feb 2019
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      Replying to @reasonisfun

      David Manheim Retweeted Lulie

      Not such limited use - it's exactly how Aumann agreement works in practice! In @abramdemski's Aumann game - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gCKURs0Xdnb8PQS54rckS4CJUp8kCklKs2KKi7xDZdA/edit?usp=sharing … - estimated probabilities sum to 1 after agreement IFF everyone converges on their estimate of everyone's calibrations. cc: @juliagalefhttps://twitter.com/reasonisfun/status/1101079007100108800 …

      David Manheim added,

      Lulie @reasonisfun
      And trying to find out whether someone is a reliable source has limited use — there are no reliable sources. The closest thing is: if you have a model of the kind of errors someone makes, you can use that to figure out what must've happened when they report something.
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim 28 Feb 2019
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      Replying to @davidmanheim @reasonisfun and

      The game was fantastic at building intuition around how and why our estimates do or do not converge. If extrapolated to large groups, it makes sense that you'd find cliques with locally consistent models, not converging globally because of failure to converge re: miscalibration.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim 28 Feb 2019
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      Replying to @davidmanheim @reasonisfun and

      David Manheim Retweeted Julia Galef

      Specifically, it's exactly this class of failure we should expect - discounting parts of arguments where you think there's bias. IIRC Pinker himself described his strong priors about what classes of prediction failure to expect from "AI-risk alarmists" due to cognitive failures.https://twitter.com/juliagalef/status/1091411673758367744 …

      David Manheim added,

      Julia GalefVerified account @juliagalef
      4) But Russell says in that post that AI could wipe out humanity & we need ppl working on AI safety. His reasons for optimism at the end don't negate what he believes is a serious risk. I don't see how you could read this & call him a skeptic of AI risk. https://www.edge.org/response-detail/26157 … pic.twitter.com/3od2wUYro0
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    7. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim 28 Feb 2019
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      Replying to @davidmanheim @reasonisfun and

      That's why Pinker says Russel's argument amount to agreeing with Risk-minimalists. In this case, Aumann agreement occurs based on calibration about future events - it gets no new evidence to update models of failure modes until it's too late to matter.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    8. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim 28 Feb 2019
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      Replying to @davidmanheim @reasonisfun and

      Anyways, I'm arguing that it's plausible that Pinker is evaluating Russel's arguments rationally, and - fully rationally - doesn't converge with your/our model of which failures and miscalibrations are coming into play to converge on object level estimates.

      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    9. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit 2 Mar 2019
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      Replying to @davidmanheim @reasonisfun and

      i don't think this is plausible. one can rationally decide not to trust the opposing case, but one cannot rationally decide not to understand the opposing case or not to represent it accurately

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit 2 Mar 2019
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      Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @davidmanheim and

      aumann is about conveying private information through estimates, but the information of who has misunderstood or misrepresented what is all out in the open

      12:16 PM - 2 Mar 2019
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim 2 Mar 2019
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          Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @reasonisfun and

          But we should see the same type of convergence of posteriors for both object-level and second order facts, and the amount of information needed should be the same whether it is public or private. So the point remains; convergence on errors requires vastly more data that he has.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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