half a degree is what the 12 years refers to
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @hikikomorphism
"there is only a dozen years for global warming to be kept to a maximum of 1.5C". we're currently at 1C
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit
Yes... They're saying if we take action we can keep it to current +0.5c, which would not be an existential threat we compared to the case where we don't take action and we get much more increase. Not sure what your disagreement here is, actually
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Replying to @hikikomorphism @VesselOfSpirit
1. It would take like +30c of warming to render the Earth completely uninhabitable to human life. (Premise) 2. That ain't happening. (Premise) 3. Global warming is not an existential risk. (1, 2)
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4) by those standards, existential risks do not exist. You sure you want to shoot yourself in the foot like this?
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yes they do
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Pandemics don't qualify, large-scale nuclear exchange does not, supervolcano or even new Large Igneous Province do not, what's left? AI as an ER is at best a sad joke, or more likely a scam, nanotech as ER is based on Drexler's delirium...
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Replying to @Thirqual @VesselOfSpirit and
In addition many people use "extinction or major setback with no chance to get back to current tech/prosperity level"...
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i agree that existential risk isn't the same thing as earth becoming uninhabitable to human life, but i disagree that earth can't become uninhabitable to human life and i think the difference is much smaller than you think it is
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @Thirqual and
seems like a sufficiently large asteroid would do it, not sure about supervolcano, future bio/AI/nano could all do it, currently unknown future techs could do it, waiting for a billion years or so would do it
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as considerations in the other direction, humans can become capable of inhabiting places that aren't inhabitable with current technology, and i suspect 30 deg is a major understatement of the (admittedly extreme) total uninhabitability criterion
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