half a degree of (eventual) warming relative to present isn't the end of the world. calling it that isn't reasonable or okayhttps://twitter.com/AOC/status/1087722312168812551 …
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit
half a degree is also way lower than consensus for the next century, so I'm not sure how any of this is relevant
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Replying to @hikikomorphism
half a degree is what the 12 years refers to
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @hikikomorphism
"there is only a dozen years for global warming to be kept to a maximum of 1.5C". we're currently at 1C
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit
Yes... They're saying if we take action we can keep it to current +0.5c, which would not be an existential threat we compared to the case where we don't take action and we get much more increase. Not sure what your disagreement here is, actually
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Replying to @hikikomorphism @VesselOfSpirit
1. It would take like +30c of warming to render the Earth completely uninhabitable to human life. (Premise) 2. That ain't happening. (Premise) 3. Global warming is not an existential risk. (1, 2)
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1. is a false premise. we don't fully understand complex systems and they are most certainly capable of phase transitions at much lower thresholds than we might believe. 4 degrees (current 100 year projection consensus) might be as catastrophic as 30 degrees in some scenarios.
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4 degrees (which corresponds to 3 degrees above present) is not the current projection consensus
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what is the current 100 year projection consensus then in the scenario where we take no significant action to reduce carbon emissions?
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i suspect the 4 degrees number comes from the rcp8.5 scenario which is on the pessimistic end of the subset of scenarios where we take no action
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i don't know if there's any official estimates of what will happen to emissions, but https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BCbVx8bCAAAOI6g.png …
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @danlistensto and
(oh 4 degrees here would be relative to recent not relative to pre-industrial)
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