for comparison, it was 7 minutes to midnight during the cuban missile crisis and 4 minutes to midnight during the petrov incident and able archer 83https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/past-statements/ …
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(i guess i should clarify this was the ambient background time to midnight in the years of those incidents, not a time set specifically for those incidents. but still)
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Charitably, they have a distinct focus on destabilizing events/ events which will make coordination on x-risks more difficult, thus the concern w/ misinformation, political paralysis, anything that's going to force mass migration and greatly slow global economic growth.
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"may make coordination more difficult" does not equate to "it's two minutes to midnight". i'm happy to call that an outright lie
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how so? I could easily spin out a scenario in which climate change renders large parts of india uninhabitable for much of the year, and they're a nuclear state - the climate doesn't need to go full venus to trigger a cascade of existential threats
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there's a lot of things that could increase the probability of nuclear war. also, this isn't the argument that they cite
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Honestly I mostly think that climate change isn't an x-risk because I trust OpenPhil a lot, I think if you just stare straight at the literature it's a lot more ambiguous than '~zero support'.
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i've done a good amount of staring straight at the literature and there really is nothing or almost nothing that suggests human extinction
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It does seem like they also take climate x-risk scenarios very seriously, but I'm not totally convinced that's wrong - the IPCC's framework for 'unlikely' and 'very unlikely' events is very bad for reasoning about tail risks.
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how so? i suspect the ipcc overestimates tails based onhttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40641-015-0023-5 …
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