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VesselOfSpirit's profile
Vessel Of Spirit
Vessel Of Spirit
Vessel Of Spirit
@VesselOfSpirit

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Vessel Of Spirit

@VesselOfSpirit

BAC, THIS.

weird.solar
Joined May 2014

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    Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit 24 Jan 2019
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    Vessel Of Spirit Retweeted Kelsey Piper

    it's hard to pretend an organization is in touch with reality and good faith if it cites climate as a main reason for saying it's "two minutes to midnight". there's ~zero support in the science literature for climate as existential risk let alone near termhttps://twitter.com/KelseyTuoc/status/1088481537744502784 …

    Vessel Of Spirit added,

    Kelsey Piper @KelseyTuoc
    I'm honestly pretty impresssed with the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists for their growth over the last couple decades into a general existential-risk-focused org. It's easy if you start focused on nukes to stay focused on nukes, especially when they remain (1/5)
    Show this thread
    1:09 PM - 24 Jan 2019
    • 3 Retweets
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    • o salmão do conhecimento Augusts Kolms ~~~ (((A. H.))) vaporvirtual David Manheim vernalis 🌸🐝🌺 diachronist goat_cliff_turangalila.mp4
    7 replies 3 retweets 11 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit 24 Jan 2019
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        for comparison, it was 7 minutes to midnight during the cuban missile crisis and 4 minutes to midnight during the petrov incident and able archer 83https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/past-statements/ …

        3 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit 25 Jan 2019
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        (i guess i should clarify this was the ambient background time to midnight in the years of those incidents, not a time set specifically for those incidents. but still)

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        Show this thread
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Kelsey Piper‏ @KelseyTuoc 24 Jan 2019
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        Replying to @VesselOfSpirit

        Charitably, they have a distinct focus on destabilizing events/ events which will make coordination on x-risks more difficult, thus the concern w/ misinformation, political paralysis, anything that's going to force mass migration and greatly slow global economic growth.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit 24 Jan 2019
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        Replying to @KelseyTuoc

        "may make coordination more difficult" does not equate to "it's two minutes to midnight". i'm happy to call that an outright lie

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. 5 more replies
      1. New conversation
      2. hikikomorphism 🏳️‍🌈 🏝 🛰️‏ @hikikomorphism 24 Jan 2019
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        Replying to @VesselOfSpirit

        how so? I could easily spin out a scenario in which climate change renders large parts of india uninhabitable for much of the year, and they're a nuclear state - the climate doesn't need to go full venus to trigger a cascade of existential threats

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit 24 Jan 2019
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        Replying to @hikikomorphism

        there's a lot of things that could increase the probability of nuclear war. also, this isn't the argument that they cite

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Kelsey Piper‏ @KelseyTuoc 24 Jan 2019
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        Replying to @VesselOfSpirit

        Honestly I mostly think that climate change isn't an x-risk because I trust OpenPhil a lot, I think if you just stare straight at the literature it's a lot more ambiguous than '~zero support'.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit 24 Jan 2019
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        Replying to @KelseyTuoc

        i've done a good amount of staring straight at the literature and there really is nothing or almost nothing that suggests human extinction

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Kelsey Piper‏ @KelseyTuoc 24 Jan 2019
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        Replying to @VesselOfSpirit

        It does seem like they also take climate x-risk scenarios very seriously, but I'm not totally convinced that's wrong - the IPCC's framework for 'unlikely' and 'very unlikely' events is very bad for reasoning about tail risks.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit 24 Jan 2019
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        Replying to @KelseyTuoc

        how so? i suspect the ipcc overestimates tails based onhttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40641-015-0023-5 …

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation

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