oumuamua being an alien spaceship doesn't make sense on any model of aliens that's consistent with the rest of what we know
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit
What rate of Oumuamua-ish discoveries would you expect (in the coming years) under aliens and no-aliens scenarios?
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Replying to @robmyers @VesselOfSpirit
Huh? We have seen a non-zero rate, regardless of which scenario. Seems like you'd need a very strong argument to get <1/yr.
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Replying to @othercriteria @robmyers
there's been only one, right? i haven't been following detection capability trends
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @robmyers
So far! That’s very surprising under both a zero rate or a high rate of encounters with objects in its reference class.
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Replying to @othercriteria @robmyers
one dyatlov pass incident is very surprising under a zero rate but i wouldn't predict any in the coming years
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @robmyers
Cell phones (and their data) would tend to make Dyatlov Pass-style incidents much more subject to mundane explanations.
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